通货膨胀(Inflation)一般指在纸币流通条件下，因货币供给大于货币实际需求，也即现实购买力大于产出供给，导致货币贬值，而引起的一段时间内物价持续而普遍地上涨现象。通货紧缩(deflation)指在现行价格条件下，由于货币供应量的减少，以致商品和劳务的供给超过需求，于是市场银根趋紧，货币流通速度转慢，货币价值高估，物价水平下跌。通货紧缩是与通货膨胀相对立的一种经济现象，当两种现象同时出现时，称为双通货。

 

What Is Biflation?

什么是双通货？

Biflation is the simultaneous occurrence of inflation and deflation in an economy. Biflation, is essentially a misnomer, since the concepts of inflation and deflation both refer to a general rise or decline in all prices, respectively, rather than to a relative change in prices among different economic goods or asset classes.

双通货是经济中通货膨胀和通货紧缩同时发生的现象。双通货本质上是一个用词不当的说法，因为通货膨胀和通货紧缩的概念分别指所有价格的普遍上涨或下跌，而不是指不同经济商品或资产类别之间的价格相对变化。

 

Biflation is a neologism for a type of Cantillon effect (an uneven response in the economy to changes in monetary policy) which occurs when expansionary monetary policy is applied to alleviate a recession.

双通货是一种坎蒂隆效应（Cantillon effect）(经济对货币政策变化的不均匀反应)的新词，这种效应发生在应用扩张性货币政策来缓解衰退时。

 

Understanding Biflation

理解双通货

Biflation, a relatively new term coined in 2003 by Dr. F. Osborne Brown, a senior financial analyst for the Phoenix Investment Group, generally kicks in when central banks open up the monetary spigots in a bid to stimulate a stagnated economy.

“双通货”是菲尼克斯投资集团(Phoenix Investment Group)高级金融分析师F. Osborne Brown博士在2003年提出的一个相对较新的术语，通常指央行为刺激停滞的经济而放松货币管制时产生的效应。

 

Because the terms inflation and deflation refer to general, economy-wide changes in price, the name of the term biflation is somewhat misleading because it does not necessarily involve any increase or decrease in the general price level, but refers to change in relative prices driven by changes in the supply of money and credit in different markets. It describes a kind of Cantillon effect that happens when expansionary monetary policy during a recession results in rampant demand for commodity assets, leading their prices to rise at the same time that debt-based assets are falling in value.

由于通货膨胀和通货紧缩这两个术语指的是整个经济范围内的价格总体变化，因此，双通货这一术语的名称多少有些误导性，因为它不一定涉及任何总体价格水平的上升或下降，而是指由不同市场的货币和信贷供应的变化所驱动的相对价格的变化。双通货描述了一种坎蒂隆效应，即经济衰退期间的扩张性货币政策导致对大宗商品资产的需求旺盛，在债务资产价值下跌的同时导致价格上涨。

 

Causes of Biflation

导致双通货的原因

 

In a depressed economy, demand for raw materials used to make things such as energy, clothing, and food will likely remain relatively high because they are deemed essential purchases by consumers. People will often continue to buy them regardless of prices rises, leaving consumers with less money for discretionary expenses.

在经济不景气的情况下，能源、服装和食品等原材料的需求可能会保持在较高水平，因为它们被消费者视为必不可少的消费品。无论价格上涨多少，人们通常都会继续购买，消费者可自由支配的开支就会减少。

 

Leveraged assets like real estate are susceptible to experiencing price decreases in such an environment. When economic growth is stagnant and unemployment increases, people cannot always justify buying a home or anything else that is expensive and deemed to be non-essential, even if low-interest rates, a key function of increasing the money supply, make it cheaper to borrow.

在这种环境下，房地产等杠杆资产很容易出现价格下跌。当经济增长停滞和失业率上升时，人们不能总是去花钱购买住房或其他昂贵且被视为不必要的东西，即使低利率——增加货币供应的关键功能——使借贷成本更低。

 

The upshot of a strong appetite for certain assets and weak demand for others is biflation. Suddenly prices are rising in one part of the economy and falling in another, giving the appearance of a mixture of inflation and deflation.

对某些资产的强烈需求和对其他资产的微弱需求导致的结果是双通货。突然间，一个经济体的物价上涨，而另一个经济体的物价下跌，结果出现了通胀和通缩的混合体。

 

Example of Biflation

双通货实例

 

Unprecedented market events caused biflation to occur in the wake of the Great Recession of 2007–2009. Against a backdrop of high unemployment and a moribund housing sector, the Federal Reserve unleashed trillions of dollars in monetary stimulus to jump-start the economy, while pledging to keep interest rates low.

2007-2009年的经济大衰退之后，史无前例的市场活动导致了股市的暴跌。面对高失业率和垂死的房地产行业，美联储释放了数万亿美元的货币刺激以启动经济，同时承诺保持低利率。

 

To be sure, those measures aided parts of the economy, albeit not immediately across the board. Rather than targeting the funding toward renewed lending to distressed businesses, for instance, banks and Wall Street institutions who received the new money first held much of the funding as cash or directed it into speculative asset classes. Housing prices eventually recovered, but not nearly as quickly as liquid assets, such as stocks, which attracted investors due to a recovery in corporate earnings fueled by low-interest rates.

可以肯定的是，这些措施对部分经济领域起到了促进作用，尽管不是立即全面发挥作用。举例来说，银行和华尔街机构收到新资金后，并没有把资金重新贷给陷入困境的企业，而是首先以现金形式持有大部分资金，或者将其投入投机性资产类别。房价最终出现反弹，但速度不及股票等流动性资产，股票等流动性资产由于企业盈利在低利率刺激下出现复苏，吸引了投资者。

 

The economy saw an ongoing decline in sectors such as housing prices, which fell in many regions until early 2012. Conversely, prices for gasoline rose from 2009 through 2012. The price of gold rose dramatically between 2009 and 2011, with growth slowing in 2012. Similarly, many other commodities markets saw rising prices over roughly the same period.

住房价格等部门的经济持续下滑，在2012年初之前，许多区域的房价一直在下跌。相反，汽油价格从2009年到2012年上涨。2009年至2011年期间，黄金价格大幅上涨，2012年增长放缓。与此类似，许多其他大宗商品市场在大致相同的时期出现了价格上涨。

 

Special Considerations

特别注意

 

Biflation has, in many ways, been exacerbated by globalization and the financialization of the world economy. In fact, following the great recession, many of the assets that experienced strong demand and inflation were those that are traded globally.

在许多方面，世界经济全球化和金融化加剧了这种两极分化。事实上，在经济大衰退之后，许多经历了强劲需求和通胀的资产都是在全球交易的资产。

 

For example, a rampant appetite for energy and metals from rapidly industrializing countries, such as India and China, was largely responsible for boosting prices for many commodities in the years immediately following the Great Recession. This made essential raw materials more expensive in a period when many consumers in the Western world found themselves in dire straits financially, contributing to a dearth of demand for things bought on credit back home, such as homes and automobiles.

例如，印度和中国等快速工业化国家对能源和金属的旺盛需求，是经济大衰退后几年许多大宗商品价格上涨的主要原因。许多西方国家的消费者发现自己陷入了财务困境，使得必需的原材料变得更加昂贵，从而导致国内对住房和汽车等赊购商品的需求严重不足。

 

英文来源

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/biflation.asp