Terminal Value (TV) 

By AKHILESH GANTI 

Updated October 21, 2023

Reviewed by ANDY SMITH

Fact checked by VIKKI VELASQUEZ

终值

作者：AKHILESH GANTI

更新时间：2023年10月21日

审阅人：ANDY SMITH

事实核查人：VIKKI VELASQUEZ

 

What Is Terminal Value (TV)?

什么是终值（TV）？

 

Terminal value (TV) is the value of an asset, business, or project beyond the forecasted period when future cash flows can be estimated. Terminal value assumes a business will grow at a set growth rate forever after the forecast period. Terminal value often comprises a large percentage of the total assessed value.

终值（TV）是资产、业务或项目在可以估计未来现金流的预测期之后的价值。终值假设业务在预测期后将永远以设定的增长率增长。终值通常占总评估值的很大比例。

 

KEY TAKEAWAYS

文章要点

 

Terminal value (TV) determines a company's value into perpetuity beyond a forecast period.

终值确定的是一家公司在预测期之后的永久价值。

Analysts use the discounted cash flow model (DCF) to calculate the total value of a business. The forecast period and terminal value are both integral components of DCF.

分析师使用贴现现金流模型计算一家企业的总价值。预测期和终值都是贴现现金流模型的重要组成部分。

The two most common methods for calculating terminal value are perpetual growth (Gordon Growth Model) and exit multiple.

计算终值最常用的两种方法是永久增长（戈登增长模型）法和退出乘数法。

The perpetual growth method assumes that a business will generate cash flows at a constant rate forever, while the exit multiple method assumes that a business will be sold.

永久增长法假设企业将永远以恒定的速度产生现金流，而退出乘数法则假设企业将被出售。

 

Understanding Terminal Value

了解终值

Forecasting gets murkier as the time horizon grows longer. This holds true in finance as well, especially when it comes to estimating a company's cash flows well into the future. At the same time, businesses need to be valued. To "solve" this, analysts use financial models, such as discounted cash flow (DCF), along with certain assumptions to derive the total value of a business or project.

随着时间跨度越来越长，预测变得越来越模糊。这在金融领域也是如此，尤其是在估算一家公司未来的现金流时。同时，企业需要被重视。为了“解决”这个问题，分析师使用财务模型，如贴现现金流，以及某些假设来算出企业或项目的总价值。

 

Discounted cash flow (DCF) is a popular method used in feasibility studies, corporate acquisitions, and stock market valuation. This method is based on the theory that an asset's value equals all future cash flows derived from that asset. These cash flows must be discounted to the present value at a discount rate representing the cost of capital, such as the interest rate.

贴现现金流是可行性研究、公司收购和股票市场估值中常用的方法。该方法基于资产价值等于该资产产生的所有未来现金流量这一理论。该等现金流量必须按代表资本成本的贴现率（如利率）贴现至现值。

 

DCF has two major components: forecast period and terminal value. Analysts use a forecast period of about three to five years—anything longer than that and the accuracy of the projections suffer. This is where calculating terminal value becomes important. However, this period is often longer for certain industries, like those involved in natural resource extraction.

贴现现金流有两个主要组成部分：预测期和终值。分析师使用大约三到五年的预测期——超过这个时间，预测的准确性就会受到影响。这就是计算终值变得重要的地方。然而，对于某些行业，如自然资源开采行业，这一时期往往更长。

 

Two commonly used methods to calculate terminal value are perpetual growth (Gordon Growth Model) and exit multiple. The former assumes that a business will continue to generate cash flows at a constant rate forever, while the latter assumes that a business will be sold for a multiple of some market metric. Investment professionals prefer the exit multiple approach, while academics favor the perpetual growth model.

计算终值的两种常用方法是永久增长（戈登增长模型）法和退出乘数法。前者假设一个企业将永远以恒定的速度产生现金流，而后者假设一个企业将以某个市场指标的乘数出售。投资专业人士更喜欢退出乘数方法，而学者更喜欢永久增长模式。

 

How Is Terminal Value Estimated?

终值是如何估算的？

 

There are several terminal value formulas. Like discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis, most terminal value formulas project future cash flows to return the present value of a future asset. The liquidation value model (or exit method) requires figuring out the asset's earning power with an appropriate discount rate and then adjusting for the estimated value of outstanding debt.

有几个公式可以用来计算终值。同贴现现金流分析一样，大多数的终值公式会对未来现金流进行预测，以得出未来资产的现值。清算价值模型（或退出法）要求使用适当的贴现率计算出资产的盈利能力，然后根据未偿债务的估计价值进行调整。

 

The stable (perpetuity) growth model does not assume the company will be liquidated after the terminal year. Instead, it assumes that cash flows are reinvested and that the firm can grow at a constant rate into perpetuity. The multiples approach uses the approximate sales revenues of a company during the last year of a discounted cash flow model, then uses a multiple of that figure to arrive at the terminal value without further discounting applied.

稳定（永久）增长模型并不假设公司将在终止年度后清算。相反，它假设现金流被再投资，公司可以以恒定的速度增长到永久。乘数法使用贴现现金流模型最后一年公司的近似销售收入，然后使用该数字的乘数得出终值，而无需进一步贴现。

 

Types of Terminal Value

终值的类型

 

Perpetuity Method

永久法

 

Discounting is necessary because the time value of money creates a discrepancy between the current and future values of a given sum of money. In business valuation, free cash flow or dividends can be forecast for a discrete period, but the performance of ongoing concerns becomes more challenging to estimate as the projections stretch further into the future. Moreover, it is difficult to determine when a company may cease operations.

贴现是必要的，因为货币的时间价值会在给定金额的当前和未来价值之间产生差异。在企业估值中，可以就某一离散期的自由现金流或股息进行预测，但随着开始对未来进行预测，持续需要关注的业绩就很难预测了。此外，很难确定一家公司何时可能会停止运营。

 

To overcome these limitations, investors can assume that cash flows will grow at a stable rate forever, starting at some point in the future. This represents the terminal value. 

想要克服这些限制，投资者可以假设现金流将永远以稳定的速度增长，从未来的某个时间点开始。这代表终值。

 

Terminal value is calculated by dividing the last cash flow forecast by the difference between the discount and terminal growth rates. The terminal value calculation estimates the company's value after the forecast period.

终值的计算方法是将最近的现金流预测除以贴现率和最终增长率之间的差额。终值计算估算的是公司在预测期后的价值。

 

Assuming cash flows will grow at a constant rate forever, the formula to calculate a firm's terminal value is:

假设现金流将永远以恒定的速度增长，则计算公司终值的公式为：

 

FCF / (d – g)

 

Where:

FCF = free cash flow for the last forecast period 

g = terminal growth rate 

d = discount rate (which is usually the weighted average cost of capital)

其中：

FCF=最后一个预测期间的自由现金流量

g=最终增长率

d=贴现率（通常为加权平均资本成本）

 

The terminal growth rate is the constant rate at which a company is expected to grow forever. This growth rate starts at the end of the last forecasted cash flow period in a discounted cash flow model and goes into perpetuity. A terminal growth rate is usually in line with the long-term inflation rate but not higher than the historical gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate.  

最终增长率是一个公司预期永远增长的恒定速率。在贴现现金流模型中，该增长率从最后一个预测现金流期末开始，并持续到永久。最终增长率通常与长期通货膨胀率一致，但不高于历史国内生产总值增长率。

 

Exit Multiple Method

退出乘数法

 

If investors assume a finite window of operations, there is no need to use the perpetuity growth model. Instead, the terminal value must reflect the net realizable value of a company's assets at that time. This often implies that the equity will be acquired by a larger firm, and the value of acquisitions are often calculated with exit multiples.

如果投资者假设的是一个有限的操作窗口，则就没有必要使用永久增长模型。相反，终值必须反映当时公司资产的可变现净值。这通常意味着股权将被一家更大的公司收购，而收购的价值通常是用退出乘数来计算的。

 

Exit multiples estimate a fair price by multiplying financial statistics, such as sales, profits, or earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), by a factor that is common for recently acquired and similar firms. The terminal value formula using the exit multiple method is the most recent metric (i.e., sales, EBITDA, etc.) multiplied by the decided-upon multiple (usually an average of recent exit multiples for other transactions). Investment banks often employ this valuation method, but some detractors hesitate to use intrinsic and relative valuation techniques simultaneously.

退出乘数通过将财务统计数据（如销售额、利润或息税折旧摊销前利润（EBITDA））乘以最近收购的公司和类似公司常见的系数来估算公平价格。使用退出乘数法的终值公式是将最新的指标（即销售额、EBITDA等）乘以确定的乘数（通常是其他交易最近退出乘数的平均值）。投资银行经常采用这种估值方法，但一些批评者不愿同时使用内在估值和相对估值技术。

 

Important: Terminal value accounts for a significant portion of the total value of a business in a DCF model, as it represents the value of all future cash flows beyond the projection period. This means that the assumptions made about terminal value can significantly impact the overall valuation of a business.

重要提示：在贴现现金流模型中，终值占企业总价值的很大一部分，因为它代表了预测期之后所有未来现金流的价值。这意味着对终值所做的假设会对企业的整体估值产生重大影响。

 

Terminal Value vs. Net Present Value

终值与净现值

 

Terminal value is not the same as net present value (NPV). Terminal value is a financial concept used in discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis and depreciation to account for the value of an asset at the end of its useful life or of a business past some projection period.

终值不同于净现值。终值是一个财务概念，用于贴现现金流分析和折旧，以说明资产在其使用寿命结束时的价值或企业在某个预测期后的价值。

 

Net present value (NPV) measures the profitability of an investment or project. It is calculated by discounting all future cash flows of the investment or project to the present value using a discount rate and then subtracting the initial investment. NPV is used to determine whether an investment or project is expected to generate positive returns or losses. It is a commonly used tool in financial decision-making, as it helps to evaluate the attractiveness of an investment or project by considering the time value of money.

净现值衡量的是投资或项目的盈利能力。其计算方法是使用贴现率将投资或项目的所有未来现金流贴现至现值，然后减去初始投资。净现值用于确定一项投资或项目是否有望产生正回报或亏损。它是财务决策中常用的工具，因为它有助于通过考虑货币的时间价值来评估投资或项目的吸引力。

 

Why Do We Need to Know the Terminal Value of a Business or Asset?

为什么我们需要了解企业或资产的终值？

 

Most companies do not assume they will stop operations after a few years. They expect business to continue forever (or at least for a very long time). Terminal value is an attempt to anticipate a company's future value and apply it to present prices through discounting.

大多数公司并不会假设他们会在几年后停止运营。他们期望生意永远持续下去（或者至少持续很长一段时间）。终值是试图预测公司的未来价值，并通过贴现将其应用于当前价格。

 

The Bottom Line

关键信息

 

Terminal value is the estimated value of an asset at the end of its useful life. It is used for computing depreciation and is also a crucial part of DCF analysis, as it accounts for a significant portion of the total value of a business. Terminal value can be calculated using the perpetual growth method or the exit multiple method. It is important to carefully consider the assumptions made when calculating terminal value, as they can significantly impact a business's overall valuation.

终值是资产在其使用寿命结束时的估计价值。它被用于计算折旧，也是贴现现金流分析的一个重要组成部分，因为它占企业总价值的很大一部分。终值可以使用永久增长法或退出乘数法计算。在计算终值时，一定要仔细考虑所作假设，因为它们可能会对企业的整体估值产生重大影响。