The prospect of a jobless growth economy has ramifications for everyone. An economy that is growing without showing concomitant growth in the number of jobs challenges investors, employees, and industries to adapt to the new economic order. When growth is coupled with high unemployment, it means that the economy is experiencing structural changes. This structural shift offers opportunities for some, difficult choices for others.

无就业增长经济的前景对每个人都会产生影响。 如果一个经济体在增长，但就业数量却没有同步增长，那么投资者、雇员和行业就会面临适应新经济秩序的挑战。 当增长与高失业率相结合时，就意味着经济正在经历结构性变化。 这种结构性转变为一些人提供了机会，却为另一些人提供了艰难的选择。

 

What Is Jobless Growth?

什么是无就业增长？

As the population of a country grows, people need to work in order to support their families and themselves. An expanding economy is necessary to employ all those who seek work. Without sufficient economic growth, people looking for work will be unable to find it. In any economic condition, it is the individual workers possessing employable skills who will find work first. If the supply of jobs is plentiful, then more opportunities open up for those with less attractive skill sets.

随着一个国家人口的增长，人们需要工作来养家糊口和自己。 经济扩张对于雇用所有求职者来说是必要的。 没有足够的经济增长，寻找工作的人将找不到工作。 在任何经济条件下，首先找到工作的都是拥有就业技能的个体工人。 如果就业机会充足，那么那些技能吸引力较差的人就会获得更多机会。

 

In a jobless growth economy, unemployment remains stubbornly high even as the economy grows. This tends to happen when a relatively large number of people have lost their jobs, and the ensuing recovery is insufficient to absorb the unemployed, under-employed, and those first entering the workforce.

在无就业增长的经济中，即使经济增长，失业率仍然居高不下。 当相对大量的人失业，而随后的复苏不足以吸纳失业者、就业不足者和首次进入劳动力市场的人时，就会发生这种情况。

 

Jobs and Growth

就业与增长

Economies experience cyclical as well as structural changes as they recover from a recession. In a cyclical economy, employment growth and decline follows the expansion and contraction of the economy. A structural change, however, displaces many unemployed workers, as their companies are unable to recover fully.

经济从衰退中复苏时会经历周期性和结构性变化。 在周期性经济中，就业增长和下降伴随着经济的扩张和收缩。 然而，结构性变化导致许多失业工人失业，因为他们的公司无法完全复苏。

 

Employment Cycles

就业周期

 

In cyclical economies, the GDP of the country contracts as companies lay off workers to bring costs in line with revenues. Unemployment climbs, contributing to the economic contraction. At some point, the economy stabilizes and begins to expand again. When it does, companies rehire their laid-off workers. This rehiring process reduces the level of unemployment. In this case, the skills and training of the workers fit the needs of the companies. This rebound in activity in established industries helps laid-off workers become rehired in their field or increases their chances of finding similar work at a different company.

在周期性经济中，随着公司裁员以使成本与收入保持一致，国家的国内生产总值会收缩。 失业率上升，导致经济萎缩。 在某个时刻，经济稳定并开始再次扩张。 当这种情况发生时，公司会重新雇用下岗工人。 这种重新雇用过程降低了失业率。 在这种情况下，工人的技能和培训符合公司的需求。 成熟行业的活动反弹有助于下岗工人在其领域重新就业，或增加他们在另一家公司找到类似工作的机会。

 

In a cyclical recovery, the core industries of the economy remain viable, and even strong, and are thus able to recover relatively quickly without undergoing significant changes in their basic operations. As a result, employment rebounds, even though it lags the recovery levels of the economy as a whole. Eventually, the economic growth drives unemployment levels down.

在周期性复苏中，经济的核心产业保持活力，甚至强劲，因此能够在基本运行不发生重大变化的情况下相对较快地复苏。 结果，就业出现反弹，尽管其滞后于整体经济的复苏水平。 最终，经济增长推动失业率下降。

 

Sunset Industries

日落产业

Economies experiencing high unemployment even as their gross domestic product (GDP) expands are encountering structural changes in their economy rather than a cyclical recovery. Many of the existing companies are unable to recover fully in a recession caused by structural changes. These companies are no longer able to compete in the marketplace as demand for their products or services falls. This can be due to new goods or services becoming available at a lower cost. In other cases, entirely new products may replace a company's niche product or service. Since these companies are unable to recover, they do not rehire their former workers. With the jobs previously available now gone, these workers must find work in other industries, where their skills are not as valuable.

即使国内生产总值（GDP）扩张，失业率仍居高不下的经济体正在经历经济结构性变化，而不是周期性复苏。 许多现有公司无法在结构性变化引起的衰退中完全恢复。 随着对其产品或服务的需求下降，这些公司不再能够在市场上竞争。 这可能是由于新商品或服务的成本较低。 在其他情况下，全新的产品可能会取代公司的利基产品或服务。 由于这些公司无法恢复，因此他们不会重新雇用以前的工人。 由于以前提供的工作现在消失了，这些工人必须在其他行业找到工作，而他们的技能在这些行业并不那么有价值。

 

Sunrise Industries

日出产业

New industries usually recover more quickly and grow faster because they often benefit from a structural shift in the economy. Along the way, they need workers with different skill sets and training. These workers usually require superior skills, along with more education and training. That said, the growing companies may hire people with minimal skills to support a service function.

新产业通常恢复得更快、增长得更快，因为它们往往受益于经济的结构性转变。 在此过程中，他们需要具有不同技能和培训的工人。 这些工人通常需要卓越的技能，以及更多的教育和培训。 也就是说，成长中的公司可能会雇用技能最低限度的人员来支持服务功能。

 

The Lost Kingdom

失落的王国

Consider the dawn of the 20th century, when automobiles replaced the horse and buggy. The companies that made buggies encountered a structural shift away from their products. The people who made buggies were no longer employable and needed to acquire new, more sophisticated skills in order to assemble complicated automobiles, with engines and drive trains. Workers who began in the auto industry were more skilled than cart makers, making it hard for former buggy workers to get a start.

想想 20 世纪初，汽车取代了马车。 制造越野车的公司遭遇了产品结构的转变。 制造越野车的人不再有工作，需要获得新的、更复杂的技能来组装带有发动机和传动系统的复杂汽车。 刚开始从事汽车行业的工人比手推车制造商的技术更高，这使得以前的马车工人很难起步。

 

New industries create new employment opportunities for those individuals with the necessary training, education, and skill sets. These companies tend to lead with innovation, creating new products or services. They also depend on research and development to create hard-to-replicate, higher-value products.

新产业为那些拥有必要培训、教育和技能的个人创造了新的就业机会。 这些公司往往以创新引领，创造新产品或服务。 他们还依靠研究和开发来创造难以复制的更高价值的产品。

 

More Cuts

更多削减

In a structural recovery, many companies change the nature of their operations to remain competitive. Some depend on productivity improvements via technology, and some companies simply move jobs to lower-cost countries in order to remain competitive. Once again, the unemployed people who formerly held jobs with these companies find it very difficult to find new work.

在结构性复苏中，许多公司改变其运营性质以保持竞争力。 有些公司依赖于通过技术提高生产力，而有些公司只是将工作岗位转移到成本较低的国家以保持竞争力。 以前在这些公司工作的失业人员再次发现很难找到新工作。

 

Retraining

再培训

Employees in shrinking industries must acquire new skills and undergo additional training to become employable. Acquiring these new skills takes time, as does the process of adapting to changing industries. This adjustment period is one of the reasons unemployment can increase even though the economy is showing signs of stability or even growth. Technology and productivity improvements change the nature of employment while increasing the time it takes to retrain employees.

萎缩行业的员工必须获得新技能并接受额外培训才能就业。 获得这些新技能需要时间，适应不断变化的行业的过程也需要时间。 尽管经济显示出稳定甚至增长的迹象，但这一调整期是失业率可能上升的原因之一。 技术和生产力的进步改变了就业的性质，同时增加了员工再培训所需的时间。

 

Structural change in an economy results in a large number of workers who are unable to find work. A large number of unemployed or underemployed people holds the growth of the economy back, as it takes a number of years before these individuals gain the skills they need to be employed at a similar level.

经济结构变化导致大量工人找不到工作。 大量失业或就业不足的人阻碍了经济增长，因为这些人需要数年时间才能获得同等水平的就业所需的技能。

 

The Bottom Line

总结

A jobless growth economy indicates the existence of changes to the fundamental basis of work for everyone. Some workers will do well, as they have the skills and training that growing industries require. Others face long-term unemployment or underemployment and will be unable to find work until they obtain new skills.

无就业增长的经济表明每个人工作的基本基础都发生了变化。 一些工人会做得很好，因为他们拥有不断发展的行业所需的技能和培训。 其他人面临长期失业或就业不足，在获得新技能之前将无法找到工作。

 

Investors who recognize the structural changes in the economy will benefit if they align their investment portfolios with the economy's growth opportunities. Finding sectors that are growing can be as simple as following the employment numbers by industry. Then, a more detailed study can be done on the promising companies within that sector.

认识到经济结构性变化的投资者如果将投资组合与经济增长机会结合起来，将会受益。 寻找正在增长的行业就像跟踪各行业的就业人数一样简单。 然后，可以对该行业内有前途的公司进行更详细的研究。

 

英文来源：Investopedia