What Is a Cyclical Stock?

什么是周期性股票？

The price of a cyclical stock is affected by macroeconomic or systematic changes in the overall economy. Cyclical stocks are known for following the cycles of an economy through expansion, peak, recession, and recovery. Most cyclical stocks involve companies that sell consumer discretionary items that consumers buy more during a booming economy but they spend less on them during a recession.

周期性股票的价格受整体经济中宏观经济或系统性变化的影响。众所周知，周期性股票跟随经济周期，经历扩张、顶峰、衰退和复苏。大多数周期性股票涉及销售非必需消费品的公司，消费者在经济繁荣时期会购买更多，但在经济衰退时期会减少支出。

Understanding Cyclical Stocks

关于周期性股票

Companies with cyclical stocks include car manufacturers, airlines, furniture retailers, clothing stores, hotels, and restaurants. Consumers can afford to buy new cars, upgrade their homes, shop, and travel when the economy is doing well.

拥有周期性股票的公司包括汽车制造商、航空公司、家具零售商、服装店、酒店和餐馆。当经济形势好的时候，消费者可以买得起新车、升级他们的房子、购物和旅游。

These discretionary expenses are some of the first things consumers cut when an economy does poorly. Cyclical stocks can become completely worthless if a recession is severe enough and companies may go out of business.

当经济表现不佳时，消费者首先削减的就是这些可自由支配的开支。如果衰退足够严重，公司可能倒闭，周期性股票可能会变得一文不值。

Cyclical stocks rise and fall with the economic cycle. This predictability in the movement of their prices can lead some investors to attempt to time the market. They buy the shares at a low point in the business cycle and sell them at a high point.

周期性股票随着经济周期而起伏。这种对价格变动的可预测性会导致一些投资者试图把握市场时机。他们在商业周期的低点买入股票，在高点卖出。

Investors should use caution about the weight of cyclical stocks in their portfolios at any point in time but this doesn't mean investors should steer clear of these stocks completely.

投资者在任何时候都应该对周期性股票在其投资组合中的权重保持谨慎，但这并不意味着投资者应该完全避开这些股票。

Special Considerations

特殊考量

Cyclical stocks are seen as more volatile than noncyclical or defensive stocks, which tend to be more stable during periods of economic weakness. However, they offer greater potential for growth because they tend to outperform the market during periods of economic strength. Investors seeking long-term growth with managed volatility tend to balance their portfolios with a mix of cyclical stocks and defensive stocks.

周期性股票被认为比非周期性或防御性股票更不稳定，而非周期性或防御性股票在经济疲软时期往往更稳定。但是，它们提供了更大的增长潜力，因为它们往往在经济强劲时期跑赢市场。寻求波动性可控的长期增长的投资者倾向于将投资组合与周期性股票和防御性股票相结合。

Investors frequently choose exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to gain exposure to cyclical stocks during expanding economic cycles. The SPDR ETF series offers one of the most popular cyclical ETF investments in the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector Fund (XLY).

在不断扩大的经济周期中，投资者经常选择交易所交易基金(ETF)来投资周期性股票。SPDR ETF系列提供了非必需消费品精选板块基金(XLY)中最受欢迎的周期性ETF投资之一。

Cyclical vs. Noncyclical Stocks

周期性股票与非周期性股票

The performance of cyclical stocks tends to correlate with the economy but the same can't be said about noncyclical stocks. These stocks tend to beat the market regardless of the economic trend, even when there's a slowdown in the economy.

周期性股票的表现往往与经济相关，但非周期性股票就不是这样了。不管经济趋势如何，这些股票往往会跑赢市场，即使是在经济放缓的时候。

Noncyclical stocks are also referred to as defensive stocks. They encompass the consumer staples category with goods and services that people continue buying through all types of business cycles, even economic downturns.

非周期性股票也被称为防御性股票。它们涵盖消费品类别，包括人们在所有类型的商业周期中，甚至是在经济低迷时期继续购买的商品和服务。

Companies that deal with food, gas, and water, such as Walmart, are examples of those that have noncyclical stocks. Adding noncyclical stocks to a portfolio can be a great strategy for investors because it helps hedge against losses sustained by cyclical companies during an economic slowdown.

经营食品、天然气和水的公司，如沃尔玛，就是拥有非周期性股票的例子。对投资者来说，将非周期性股票加入投资组合可能是一个很好的策略，因为这有助于对冲周期性公司在经济放缓期间遭受的损失。

Example of Cyclical Stocks

周期性股票的实例

Cyclical stocks are often further delineated by durables, nondurables, and services. Durable goods companies are involved in the manufacture or distribution of physical goods that have an expected life span of more than three years. Companies that operate in this segment include automakers such as Ford, appliance manufacturers like Whirlpool, and furniture makers such as Ethan Allen.

周期性股票通常被进一步划分为耐用品、非耐用品和服务。耐用品公司参与制造或分销预期寿命超过三年的实物商品。在这一领域开展业务的公司包括福特等汽车制造商、惠而浦等家电制造商以及伊森·艾伦等家具制造商。

The measure of durable goods orders is an indicator of future economic performance. It may be an indication of stronger economic activity in the ensuing months when durable goods orders are up in a particular month.

耐用品订单的衡量是未来经济表现的指标。当耐用品订单在特定月份上升时，这可能表明接下来几个月的经济活动更强劲。

Nondurable goods companies produce or distribute soft goods that have an expected life span of fewer than three years. Examples of companies that operate in this sector are Coca-Cola and Procter & Gamble.

非耐用品公司生产或销售预期寿命不到三年的纺织品。在这一领域经营的公司有可口可乐公司和宝洁公司。

Services is a separate category of cyclical stocks because these companies don't manufacture or distribute physical goods. They instead provide services that facilitate travel, entertainment, and other leisure activities for consumers. Walt Disney (DIS) is one of the best-known companies operating in this space. Also falling into this category are companies that operate in the digital area of streaming media, such as Netflix (NFLX).

服务是周期性股票的一个单独类别，因为这些公司不制造或分销实物商品。相反，他们为消费者提供方便旅游、娱乐和其他休闲活动的服务。华特迪士尼(DIS)是这一领域最著名的公司之一。在流媒体数字领域运营的公司也属于这一类别，如网飞(NFLX)。

How Can I Collect Income From Investing in Stocks?

怎样才能收取投资股票的收益？

A stock is essentially an ownership interest in a company. You own a small percentage of the enterprise when you purchase one or more of its stocks. You'll receive monetary dividends as payment when and if the company does well. You can use them to reinvest and purchase more shares or you can take dividends as cash payments.

股票本质上是公司的所有者权益。当你购买一个或多个企业的股票时，你就拥有了企业的一小部分。如果公司业绩良好，你将获得现金分红。你可以用它们进行再投资和购买更多的股票，或者你可以把股息作为现金支付。

You can also sell your stocks. You'll have capital gains income if you can sell your shares for more than your investment in them, including any trading fees.

你也可以卖掉你的股票。如果你能以高于投资的价格卖出股票，包括任何交易费用，你将获得资本收益。

What Are Some of the Best Cyclical Stocks?

最佳周期性股票有哪些？

The "best" of any type of stock is the one that most closely accommodates your goals and your risk tolerance. That said, numerous sources will rate individual stocks for you based on other factors. Yahoo Finance recommends cyclical stocks of companies with names that we're all familiar with, like Costco, Expedia, UPS, Airbnb, and Kohl's.

任何类型的“最佳性”股票都是最符合你的目标和风险承受能力的。也就是说，许多信息来源会根据其他因素为你对个股进行评级。雅虎财经推荐我们都很熟悉的公司的周期性股票，比如好市多、Expedia、UPS、Airbnb和美国柯尔百货公司。

What Is a Counter-Cyclical Stock?

什么是反周期性股票？

As the term "counter" implies, a counter-cyclical stock is noncyclical. Its price is inclined to move in the opposite direction from that in which the economy appears to be headed. The prices of these stocks tend to go up when the economy is struggling and a recession is looming or has already begun.

正如“反”这个词所暗示的，反周期性股票是非周期性的。它的价格倾向于与经济发展的方向相反。当经济陷入困境、衰退即将来临或已经开始时，这些股票的价格往往会上涨。

The Bottom Line

底线

A cyclical stock moves in sync with trends in the economy. The price soars when the economy is flourishing, but it can just as easily tank in times of recession. These stocks tend to be companies that produce and sell products that are discretionary rather than necessary components of life. Think restaurant chains rather than groceries.

周期性股票的走势与经济趋势同步。当经济繁荣时，价格飙升，但在经济衰退时，价格也很容易下跌。这些股票往往是生产和销售非必需产品而非生活必需品的公司的。想想连锁餐厅，而不是杂货店。

Cyclical stocks tend to produce high returns but this is confined to times of economic strength. They'll tank when the economy struggles. They're volatile and should be balanced with noncyclical stocks in a portfolio.

周期性股票往往会产生高回报，但这仅限于经济强劲时期。经济不景气时，他们会破产。它们很不稳定，应该与投资组合中的非周期性股票保持平衡。

（英文来源：Investopedia）